2007/06 – Latest Report

Climate Change Intelligence Report – June 2007

The latest indicator facts and stories were clipped from the most reputable sources using Clipmarks (www.clipmarks.com) during the month of May 2007. Trend Monitor plans to publish a free semi-monthly update compiled from the latest indicators clipped in the previous months.

Overview

Uncertainty result of unprecedented conditions

Content analysis indicates that the worse problem is not the warming caused by carbon dioxide itself, but the potential positive feedback loops in methane and water vapour levels that could be the consequences of the warming. The indicators also suggest that the unprecedented nature of this phase of climate change means that the science is very uncertain, and that nobody really knows what is going to happen. The corollary is that anyone who says they know, doesn’t.

Carbon dioxide

Issues: CLARIFYING DISAGREEMENTS

Most people agree with the scientific theory that carbon dioxide reflects heat that would otherwise radiate into space back into the atmosphere. There is also a widespread consensus that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing at an accelerating rate. Where people disagree are on the causes – human or non-human – and on the effects, forecasting how the increasing concentrations of CO2 will actually effect the climate. The truth is that nobody really knows, for sure. This meta-synthesis provides the latest indications of Conditions (what is happening), Goals (what we want to do), Actions (what we are actually doing).

Conditions: WORSE THAN HIGHEST FORECAST

CO2 emissions are reported as “exceeding the highest assumptions” in climate change studies, as between 2000 and 2004, worldwide CO2 emissions increased at a rate that is over three times the rate during the 1990s. According to the Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences, the rate increased from 1.1 per cent per year during the 1990s to 3.1 per cent per year in the early 2000s. The latest UN report on climate change states that emissions grew by more than 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004.

Goals: GETTING THERE IS HALF THE FUN

The Website www.terradaily.com estimates that by reducing deforestation rates by 50 per cent over the next century could contribute 12 per cent of the total carbon emissions reduction required to meet the target of stabilising atmospheric carbon dioxide to 450 part per million, the IPCC target. The New Scientist quotes the UN reports conclusion that “Stabilising greenhouse gases at a level that would limit global warming to between 2°C and 4°C will cost between 0.2% and 3.0% of annual GDP.”

Actions: MARKETS FAILING

In a Financial Times interview (www.ft.com), Chris Goodall, characterised as a “climate change guru”, is quoted saying that most carbon offsetting schemes resembled “the medieval system of indulgences” when Catholic priests absolved peoples sins for a negotiated fee. The Financial Times (www.ft.com) also reports the findings of its own investigation which uncovered widespread failings in the new markets for greenhouse gases, suggesting some organisations are paying for emissions reductions that do not take place. Many companies are said to be “making big profits from carbon trading for very small expenditure and in some cases for clean-ups that they would have made anyway.”

Methane

Issues: THE SLEEPING GIANT

Methane gas is estimated to be 23 times more potent as a green house gas than carbon dioxide. Although it only lasts in the atmosphere for 12 years, the amount of methane frozen in the permafrost and underwater is vast. As temperatures warm, more methane is bound to be released. The questions are: How much? When? How sudden? Research suggests that methane emissions do not rise gradually, but happen in “burps” as temperature thresholds are breached. Given the massive potential significance of methane in climate change, it receives very little coverage compared to CO2, although, it must be said, coverage appears to be increasing. Since, so much of the methane cycle is out of human control, no overall emissions Goals can be set, nor Actions undertaken, other than keeping overall temperatures down so the permafrost and the underwater methane hydrates do not start “burping”.

Conditions: A SLOW AWAKENING

The huge expanses of water-logged tundra, taiga and lake sediments which stretch across Northern Canada and Russia are considered to be primary sources of methane. As the temperatures rise in the Arctic (which they are reportedly doing at record rates), the danger of a lot more methane being given off by rotting organic matter as the permafrost melts and underwater gas hydrate deposits become “vulnerable”, according to a University of Alaska study. (www.iarc.uaf.edu ).

A Scientific American article states that “Methane concentrations have increased about 150 percent in the air since 1750 and now far exceed the natural range of the past 650,000 years, the U.N.’s climate panel says. And human activities are largely to blame.” Although the rise in methane levels has steadied since 1999, it is thought by scientists to be because the drying out of tropical wetlands seems to canceling out a rise in emissions from other sources.

Other major sources of growing emissions are said to be livestock whose numbers are increasing fast because of the fast growing demand for meat in the newly industrialising world, rice paddies and hydroelectric dams which Brazilian scientists estimate produce enough methane from decomposing organic matter to make them “top contributors” to annual human-caused methane emissions. The study concluded “The massive amounts of methane produced by hydropower reservoirs in the tropics mean that these dams can have a much higher warming impact than even the dirtiest fossil fuel plants generating similar quantities of electricity.” (www.azcentral.com)

A study which suggested that plants produce large quantities of methane is reported in the New Scientist to have been contradicted by the latest research conducted in a “gas tight greenhouse”. (environment.newscientist.com)

Carbon monoxide

Issues: LONG-RANGE CONSEQUENCES

How far do pollutants travel in the atmosphere before dissipating? What are the consequences of long range pollution and poisoning? Only then, what can be done about it?

Conditions: PLUME TRAVELS EAST ACROSS PACIFIC

A European Space Agency survey suggests that one third of “the pall” of carbon dioxide that hovered over Australia during wildfires there in 2004 originated from forest fires in South America. Researchers were characterised as being “very surprised” that a plume of carbon monoxide could travel so far.

Water vapour

Issues: BIGGEST GREEN HOUSE CONTRIBUTOR

Water vapour is the biggest contributor to the “natural greenhouse effect”. The warmer the temperature, the more water vapour is created leading to a positive feedback loop that makes water vapour levels as a key component of climate change. So great is the influence of water vapour in air temperature that some people believe that it is a far greater determining factor in climate change than CO2.

Conditions: THE GREAT UNKNOWN

Although human activities are seen as having little direct impact on global water vapour levels, any role humans have in increasing temperatures will also have the consequence of increasing water vapour levels and the chances of creating a positive feedback loop. For example, as ice melts in the arctic and from glaciers, it is more likely to become water vapour.

 

This is the work of one person only, so the number of clips is relatively few. Nevertheless, by using even this simple classification as a focus, it should already be possible to perceive a higher level story and to see a wider perspective.
Imagine if a team of clippers and writers went to work to look for and synthesise all the best sources. That is what Trend Monitor used to do for corporations for good money. Now in the world of Web 2.0 and the Wikipedia, people can do the work themselves in order to build a higher level of collective intelligence.
Let us know in the comments if you want to help with source monitoring and clipping, analysis and writing. Warning: there is some discipline involved. The results are very rewarding, if sometimes very alarming.